The launching of "Fire with Fire" as February's Book of the Month marks the beginning of this blog's analysis of current events, focusing primarily on the Iranian threat and what should be done to counter it. Instead of simply giving an opinion, we hope to provide updates as well as informative background information, so that our readers can make informed opinions of their own.
It is important to note that the Iran is currently undergoing a militarization of its society. In the past years, the army and its veterans have been chipping away at the power of the clerics that originally led the Islamic revolution in 1979. Today, the majority of elected seats and most positions of power are held by ex-military officers and war veterans, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has control over substantially all economic activity in the country. Virtually no business can survive without providing kickbacks and a portion of their profits to the revolutionary guard. For example, in a contractor's bid, it is common for the members of the guard to "win" the bid, and then simply subcontract the work to the "second place" for a fraction of the payment.
Ahmadinejad, who is also an ex-military officer, speaks of a deranged messianism, which is hard to fathom that even he believes in it himself. He has stated that he is contact with the Hidden Imam (the Shi'ite messiah), and he said that during his UN speech a glow of light surrounded him and that his listeners were entranced by him. All this is an effort to appropriate for himself the Islamic cleric's only remaining claim to power.
On a more positive note, most of us are under the impression that Iran is a closed society with no access to the outside world. That's clearly not true. Iranians have access to the internet, cable television including CNN, BBC, and foreign radio including even Israeli stations and Voice of America. Many of the cultural initiatives created by the Shah (Iran's previous ruler) were maintained, and today 60% of all Iranian college students are women.
Part of what led to the creation of the "Green Movement" is that the government tried to restrict any political advancement, while still permitting the cultural openness that now exists in the country. Frustrastion with this unrealistic policy was compouned by a blatantly fraudulent election (Ahmadinejad's first election was also fraudulent, yet not as insulting to the population's IQ), a faltering economy, and a highly controversial foreign policy that only serves to further isolate the country and further worsen economic conditions.
The Green Movement has gained some traction, but its power does not compare to that of the revolutionary guard. The harsh crackdowns have begun shown just how far the guard is willing to go to liquidate any threat to its position. Nonetheless, its worth noting that the members of the guard are not simply crazy - they are pragmatic, and will continue to make a cost-benefit analysis of whether or not it is worth continuing the crackdown and pursuing nuclear weapons. So far, the benefits seem to be outweighing the costs.
Further sanctions could change this outcome. However, while France and Germany believe in pursuing sanctions (France so far has shown even greater willingness to forcefully stop Iran than the US itself), China and Russia still present obstacles to any action at the UN Security Council level. It is therefore likely that the US will have to pursue a path of sanctions outside that framework, persuading its allies one by one. If the US can convince even a handful of countries to stop trading with Iran (such as Japan, Italy, South Korea, the Netherlands), that could be a major setback for the Iranian regime. Click here to view Iran's major trade partners.
The timing for all this to happen is somewhat limited. We will have a better picture in the coming weeks and months. These issues are likely to be coming to a climax during AIPAC's policy conference, which starts March 21, 2010. The policy conference is a chance to make your voice heard in Washington. You can register for it here. So far, US lobbying efforts have been extremely successful, with the US Senate passing an Iran Sanctions bill this last Thursday night.
If sanctions don't work, as the Israeli government and military are wont to say, "All options are still on the table." More about military option in further posts on this blog.
Act Now and Stay informed!
For more information and to take action regarding this important matter, here are at least two organizations you can contact: United Against Nuclear Iran (www.uani.org), and the America Israel Political Affairs Committee (www.aipac.org).
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